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最新民调：特朗普、哈里斯在7大战场州打得难解难分

wczz1314 2024年10月22日 13:00 阅读(1,856) 评论(271)

作为背景，美国总统大选采取“选举人票”制度， 全国上下一共有538张选举人票，抢到270张就能当美国总统。

作为背景，美国总统大选采取“选举人票”制度， 全国上下一共有538张选举人票，抢到270张就能当美国总统。

同时由于美国大多数州都有着明确的支持倾向（例如民主党100%能赢下加州），且绝大多数州都采取“赢家通吃（所有选举人票）”的制度， 所以近年来7个摇摆州93票的得失，基本上等同于大选的最终结果。

最新民调：特朗普、哈里斯在7大战场州打得难解难分

正因如此，双方在最后冲刺阶段都铆足了劲在摇摆州拉票。上周日特朗普特意跑去炸薯条的麦当劳门店位于宾夕法尼亚州，也是所有摇摆州中选举人票最多的一个。

最新民调：特朗普、哈里斯在7大战场州打得难解难分

（正在炸薯条的特朗普，来源：X）

选情极度胶着

根据华盛顿邮报/沙尔政策与政府学院对7个州5016名注册选民进行的调查显示，表示肯定或可能支持特朗普的人达到47%，同时倾向于哈里斯人同样也占47%。而在可能投票的选民中，有49%的人支持哈里斯，支持特朗普的比例也达到48%。

在更关键的各州民调分布中， 特朗普在亚利桑那州（11票）获得的支持更多，他在注册选民中领先6个百分点，在可能投票的选民中，优势缩窄至3个百分点。 他在北卡罗莱纳州（16票）也处于领先。

哈里斯在佐治亚州（16票）的领先幅度最大，另外她在 密歇根（15票）、宾夕法尼亚（19票）和威斯康辛州（10票）也稍稍领先特朗普，但她在这些地方的领先均在统计误差范围内。

剩下的内华达州（6票）双方完全持平，但这个州本身的选举人票数量也不算多。

胶着的结果也显示出， 今年美国大选的结果很有可能将由那些缺乏明确支持意向的群体来决定。民调显示，还有21%的人并未想明白会支持哪一位候选人。从群体分布来看，年轻的注册选民更有可能没有明确立场，同时非白人选民处于摇摆状态的比例也要高于白人选民。

谁赢都行！美股市场最怕僵持

尽管美国大选的悬念大概率要维持到选举之后，但这种不确定性似乎并没有影响到金融市场。标普500指数刚刚完成6周连涨，顺手刷新历史新高。

一方面是因为美国大选对美股市场通常不构成利空。 自1960年以来，标普500指数只有在2000年和2008年选举年下跌，更多是受到互联网泡沫破灭和次贷危机影响。与今年类似，2012年、2016年和2020年美股涨幅都达到两位数百分比。

考虑到今年两人的选情高度胶着，由于选举僵持导致的下跌也应该被纳入投资者考量的情境中。 例如由于2000年大选之后足足36天未能确认结果，在此期间标普500指数下跌超过4%，寻求避险的投资者大举买入黄金和美国国债。

（财联社 史正丞）

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